Control of US House, Senate is up for grabs. What could down-ballot elections mean for Ukraine support?

The entire U.S. House and some members of the Senate are up for reelection in November — including some of Ukraine’s staunchest backers in Congress, which could have an impact on future support for Kyiv in its fight against Russia.
All 435 members of the House will face re-election on Nov. 5. Voter turnout is expected to be higher than normal given the face-off between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, likely increasing turnout for all congressional district races.
While Congressional races aren’t typically the focus of international concern, this November’s elections could alter the political makeup of key committees and districts that have been reliable in their support of Ukraine.
In some races, incumbent Democrats could be unseated by Trump-backed Republicans who oppose America’s support for Ukraine.
Republicans are slightly favored to retain leadership in the House, according to Inside Elections, an independent political analysis organization, but Democrats are benefitting from momentum and a surge in down-ballot financing following the rallying around Kamala Harris. In some states, early in-person voting is already underway.
Democrats are also facing what Rep. Jim Costa of California said are strong concerns about efforts from the Kremlin to benefit Trump in the election.
“The constant effort of Russia today, not just RT, but their various means to infiltrate our election process, to disrupt and favor Trump, is well known and substantial,” Rep. Costa said, referencing the state-owned news outlet in Russia that recently had two employees indicted for funding a pro-Russian network in Tennessee.
“Russia is also trying to impact elections down ballot where they can.”
For House Republicans, who currently have the majority, 112 representatives who voted ‘no’ on the $61 billion aid package for Ukraine that was passed in April are up for re-election. Among those are 12 Republicans on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
Its chairman, on the other hand, Rep. Michael McCaul, is among the more supportive Republicans of Ukraine, having voted yes on the April aid package.
House Democrats in support of Ukraine could gain another vote should Foreign Affairs Committee member and Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Scott Perry, lose this November.
Perry, who has voted against all significant Ukraine packages lately and is known for his connection to Donald Trump’s 2020 election denial, is facing a challenger who has expressed support for Ukraine.
“If (Putin is) successful in Ukraine, how much further will he take it?,” the challenger, Janelle Stelson, told a Pennsylvania television station in April.
“Will he then start eking into our NATO allies? We don’t know what’s in his mind. But when I see Scott Perry vote against Ukraine and vote for Russia, that’s a real problem for me.”
Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon, a Republican who visited Kyiv on Sept. 13 and serves on the Armed Services Committee, is one of the most adamant Ukraine-supporting conservatives who could lose in November. Rep. Bacon defeated an anti-Ukraine opponent from his right wing in the Republican primary and now must face a general election Democrat in a district won by President Biden in 2020.
Nearly two-thirds of Americans support Ukraine in Rep. Bacon’s estimates, which is why he said discussing his support of Ukraine is a winning issue in his divided district.
In April, 44% of Americans said they were extremely concerned about the possibility of Ukraine being defeated and taken over by Russia.
“If I happen to lose in November it won’t be because of Ukraine,” Rep. Bacon told the Kyiv Independent. “I think I would be in a worse spot if I didn’t support Ukraine.”
In Cleveland, Ohio, one of the largest Ukrainian communities in the country, Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur, the Democratic co-chair of the bipartisan Ukraine Caucus, has faced growing support from the Republican opposition who’ve challenged her in previous races.
Kaptur, who recently led a bipartisan letter calling for the Biden administration to lift its restrictions on Kyiv’s use of American weapons to strike inside Russia, won her last race by 13% but used to be re-elected more handily with a margin near 30%.
Knowing that the economy is the number one driver on most voters’ minds, the reliable advocate for Ukraine hopes that the number of veterans in Ohio who know the realities of war abroad and aid workers who’ve helped Ukrainians in Cleveland will show up on election day with foreign policy in mind.
“A lot of Ohioans have come to see — they didn’t even know where Ukraine was — now they’re seeing this creeping threat across NATO,” Kaptur told the Kyiv Independent.
The campaign for Republican Derek Merrin who is facing Kaptur did not respond to requests for comment.
When it comes to adamantly vocal opposition to support of Ukraine, Congress’s distinct Republicans are Marjorie Taylor Greene in the House and JD Vance in the Senate, Trump’s running mate.
Greene, the current two-term fringe Georgia representative blamed for spreading Russian propaganda, is among the incumbents that would make Ukraine lobbying easier should she lose in November. The campaign website of her opponent, Shawn Harris, says that America should use all the tools available to manage Russia’s threat, including civilian and military aid.
However, if Greene’s 2022 re-election where she won handily with over 65% of the vote is any indicator, Harris’s odds of overthrowing the conspiracy theorist won’t be easy.
Congress’s only Ukraine-born representative, Indiana Republican Victoria Spartz, is one of the incumbent Republicans who voted no on aid to Ukraine in April and could be unseated by a Democrat in November. Deborah Pickett, the Democrat challenging Spartz, said she supports continued aid to Ukraine, according to local reporting in Indiana.
Rep. Spartz defeated her Democratic challenger in 2022 by over 50,000 votes, but in 2020 defeated the Democratic opposition by about 17,000 votes. Spartz, who did not respond to requests for comment, was backed by Trump in her successful 2020 primary, representing a sect of the Republican party that many view as voting on policy packages depending on the former president’s views.
“I actually think there’s a lot of Republican support on the Hill for Ukraine and to stand up to Russia,” a Senate aide who agreed to speak on condition of anonymity told the Kyiv Independent. “But some of these folks are caught in the Trump vice of their own making.”
In the Senate, where Republicans only need to flip two seats to guarantee control of the chamber, Democrats are likely to see their narrow majority fall to at least a 50-50 split due to the retirement of independent Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia. The state’s Republican Governor who is expected to win the Senate seat, Jim Justice, has supported previous American aid to Ukraine.
However, one of Republican’s best chances to win a Senate seat is in Montana, where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester’s incumbency is threatened in a state fond of Trump. Tester’s  Republican challenger, Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, has called for an end to American involvement in Ukraine, saying the U.S. should focus on its economy.
“It’s time for the United States to end our involvement in this war,” Sheehy said in a July 2023 statement. “We must now demand a settlement which ends the killing of innocent people and the unlimited supply of arms from the United States.”
In Ohio, which has become a reliably red state for Trump since 2016, Senate Republicans have another shot at unseating a Democrat with a Trump-backed Ukraine skeptic. Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown, who has consistently endorsed U.S. aid to Ukraine, faces a well-financed Republican, Bernie Moreno, who told a local news station that the U.S. should not be funding ‘another endless war.’
There are a number of Republican candidates up for re-election or vying to join the House who align with Trump and thus pose questionable policies for Ukraine, Democratic Senator Mark Kelly, who isn’t up for re-election until 2029 but has increasingly been in the public eye after being shortlisted for Harris’s running mater said.  
“(At the) same time, I expect that the Democrats win back the House, so after January I think (Democrats) will be in a better position, which means Ukraine will be in a better position,” Sen. Kelly said.